Goals Bets: Odds and Who Scores

**Goals Bets** (or Totals Bets) have become one of the most popular and profitable markets, as they allow the bettor to focus on the flow and style of a match, regardless of who wins or loses. The main market is Over/Under, where you predict whether the total goals scored in a match will exceed (Over) or fall below (Under) a figure established by the bookmaker (e.g., 2.5 goals). Mastering this market requires deep statistical analysis focused on the offensive and defensive performance of the teams.

11. Mastering the Over/Under Market: 2.5 as the Standard

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is the benchmark in football. Bets are established with half goals to avoid the refund (push) and force a Winner or Loser result. For Over/Under, the analysis must go beyond averages:

• Expected Goals (xG): The most important metric. If the average xG of a team and the xG allowed by their rival total 3.0, it is a clear candidate for Over 2.5. If the sum is 1.8, Under 2.5 has more value.
• Home/Away Performance: There are teams with high offensive capacity at home that are extremely cautious away. Bets must be adjusted to the context of the match location.
• Weather and Field: A very wet or snowy field makes the construction of the game difficult and favors the Under. This is a crucial qualitative data point for the totals analysis.

The key is to find a Positive Expected Value (EV+) by predicting that the bookmaker's 2.5 goals line is too low (betting on Over) or too high (betting on Under) based on your data.

22. The "Both Teams to Score" Market and its Analysis

The **Both Teams to Score (BTTS)** market, where you bet "Yes" or "No", is another favorite among goals bettors. It requires each team to score at least one goal for the bet to be "Yes". This market is ideal for matches where open attacks and vulnerable defenses are expected, or for duels where the history of rivalry guarantees that both teams will go on the attack.

Factores for Betting "Yes" (Both Teams to Score):

• Both teams have a high xG.
• Both teams have a high xGA (Expected Goals Against), indicating weak defenses.
• There are significant absences in the defensive line or the goal.
• The match is a direct duel that forces both to win (e.g., a cup final).

Value in the BTTS market is found by comparing it to the Over/Under market. If the BTTS odd is very close to the Over 2.5 odd, the BTTS market often offers a cleaner risk/reward ratio.

33. Specific Bets: Odds and Who Scores (First/Last Goalscorer)

Goalscorer bets (first goalscorer, last goalscorer, goalscorer at any time) are the most popular among the recreational public, as they focus on individual performance.

• Goalscorer at Any Time: It is the simplest bet, where the player must score at least once in the match. The odds are lower than the "First Goalscorer", but the probability of success is higher.
• First Goalscorer: Much higher odds, but a low probability of success. It requires analysis of the team's starting strategy (who takes penalties and direct free kicks?) and the opponent's tendency to concede early.

Goalscorer Strategy: Analysis must consider the player's position and function. Are they the penalty taker? Are they a midfielder who joins the attack? Have they scored 70% of their team's goals? These bets must be managed with a low stake, as the luck factor is high, but they can offer excellent value odds if an underestimated player is identified by the bookmaker.

44. Other Goal Markets: Time of Goal and Team Total

There are advanced variants for the goal bettor:

• Team Goal Total: Betting that only Team A will score Over 1.5 Goals, regardless of what Team B does. It is ideal when a crushing victory is predicted, but it is feared that the rival will also score.
• Time of the First Goal: Bets on intervals (e.g., Before Minute 10). They have a very high risk, but they offer value odds in matches where a team has a history of fast starts and the rival is known for coming out sluggish.

In conclusion, mastering Goals Bets requires a migration from superficial analysis (only averages) to advanced metrics (xG). By understanding the odds, Over/Under, and individual performance, you can find value in the offensive and defensive flow of the teams, ensuring a profitable and exciting market.