Double Chance Bets: Lower Risk, More Options

The **Double Chance Bet** is one of the most accessible markets and, strategically, most valuable for the bettor who seeks to drastically reduce risk and secure a return with a high probability. This type of bet allows covering two of the three possible results of the 1X2 market (Home, Draw, Away) with a single selection. Although the odds are inherently lower than those of the simple bet, the Double Chance is the perfect tool to bet on an underdog that you believe has a great chance of not losing, or to secure a result in a very even duel.

1The Mechanics and the Three Coverage Options

A Double Chance bet always offers three possible combinations, covering almost 66% of the results:

1. 1X (Home or Draw): You win if the home team wins or if the match ends in a draw. You lose only if the away team wins.
2. X2 (Draw or Away): You win if the away team wins or if the match ends in a draw. You lose only if the home team wins.
3. 12 (Home or Away): You win if the home team or the away team wins. You lose only if the match ends in a draw.

Probability is your greatest ally here. If a team has a 50% probability of victory and a 20% probability of a draw, the Double Chance 1X has a 70% chance of success (50% + 20%). This high success rate is what makes it a favorite option for low-risk bettors.

2When is the Double Chance Strategic? (Value Betting)

Betting on Double Chance does not always have value. If the clear favorite has a win odd of 1.20, their Double Chance will be 1.08, which is not profitable in the long term due to the house vig. The real value is found in three scenarios:

• Betting on the Underdog ('X2' or '1X'): This is the most profitable use. If the Underdog Team has a win odd of 4.00, and you believe they have a 25% chance of winning and a 20% chance of a draw (45% chance of not losing), the Double Chance X2 will offer you a much more attractive odd (e.g., 1.80) than the simple win. You are betting with the expectation that the Underdog will "hold on" in the match.
• Matches with High Draw Risk: In leagues known for their high frequency of draws (e.g., lower European leagues), the 1X or X2 option offers a high probability of success with a decent odd, especially if the team is strong defensively.
• Key Matches where a Draw is Functional: On the last matchday, if a draw qualifies both teams, the Double Chance that includes the draw becomes an almost sure bet, although the odd will reflect that low risk.

3Risk Comparison: Double Chance vs. Draw No Bet

It is crucial to differentiate Double Chance from the **Draw No Bet (DNB)**, as both are low-risk safety nets:

• Double Chance (e.g., X2): Covers two results. If you hit one of the two, you collect. If the result is the third (e.g., home win), you lose 100% of the stake.
• Draw No Bet (e.g., Away DNB): Covers the away win. If the away team wins, you collect. If it's a draw, you get 100% of the bet refunded (push). You only lose if the home team wins.

The DNB offers a higher odd than the Double Chance, as it only covers one result with the "X" as a refund. The Double Chance is safer, as it guarantees a profit even with the draw, in exchange for a lower odd. Your choice will depend on your risk tolerance and whether you need the safety push (DNB) or the guaranteed profit for two results (Double Chance).

4Advanced Strategy: Use in Combined and Coverage Bets

The Double Chance is one of the few low-risk markets that can be intelligently used in a combined or system bet. By including a Double Chance (e.g., X2 with odds 1.80) alongside two high-risk simple bets (e.g., Goalscorer, Asian Handicap), you use the Double Chance as the high-probability anchor to increase the combined bet's total odd without adding excessive risk.

In summary, the Double Chance is the insurance option for the bettor. It is a market that requires you to calculate value in reverse: what is the actual probability that the result will not occur? If the probability of losing is very low, the Double Chance is a high-expected value market. Use it to protect yourself from surprises in even duels and to obtain profitable odds by backing the underdog.