Inter vs Milan Prediction: A Crucial Derby della Madonnina for the Serie A Leadership

The spotlight of Italian football turns once again to the majestic Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this Sunday, November 23, 2025, for a new edition of the historic Derby della Madonnina. The clash between Inter and AC Milan is never just another fixture, but this specific encounter in Matchday 12 of the Serie A 2025/26 season carries a weight that could define the trajectory of the title race. With both teams sitting in the top three positions of the league table, the stakes are incredibly high for two giants looking to assert their dominance over the city of Milan and the rest of Italy.

The context surrounding this derby is one of intense parity at the summit of Calcio. Inter enters the match as the current league leaders, sitting at the very top with 24 points. However, their cushion is minimal in what is shaping up to be an extremely tight campaign; only three points separate the first from the fifth position. This congestion at the top means that a slip-up in the derby could see the Nerazzurri lose their privileged status. They have been the standard-bearers of Italian football, maintaining a top-three presence for the last six campaigns, and they are determined to keep marking the path toward another Scudetto.

On the other side of the city, AC Milan arrives with renewed hope and a different tactical identity. Following a forgettable 2024/25 season that saw them finish eighth and go through significant turmoil—including two managerial changes and unrest against RedBird Capital—the Rossoneri are dreaming again. Currently sitting in third place with 22 points, just two behind their arch-rivals, a victory would see them leapfrog Inter in the standings. The atmosphere is electric, the tactical battleboards are set, and the Giuseppe Meazza is ready to host a match that promises to be a turning point in the Serie A season.

1Inter Analysis: The League Leaders' Fortress

Inter comes into this derby enjoying a solid run of form that justifies their position at the top of the table. Their recent performances have been authoritative, stringing together three consecutive victories in Serie A. This momentum is built on the most lethal attack in the league; the Nerazzurri have already found the net 26 times in just 11 matches, averaging an impressive 2.36 goals per game. Their offensive machinery is well-oiled, generating an average of 18.33 shots per match with 6 of them on target, supported by a dominant possession game that hovers around 64% in recent outings.

At home, the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has been nothing short of a fortress for Inter. In their last three home fixtures, they have secured three wins, conceding only a single goal while scoring an average of 2.33 goals per game. The dominance they exert on their own turf is further highlighted by their possession statistics at home (61.33%) and their ability to consistently test opposing goalkeepers. Defensively, they remain robust, having conceded only 12 goals in the league so far. This balance between a high-octane attack and a disciplined defensive unit makes them a formidable opponent, especially when playing in front of the Curva Nord.

Tactically, Inter is expected to maintain their structured 3-5-2 formation, a system that has brought them sustained success. Goalkeeper Yann Sommer provides security between the posts, marshaling a backline featuring Manuel Akanji, Yann Bisseck, and Alessandro Bastoni. The midfield engine room is packed with dynamism and quality, with Nicolò Barella and Davide Frattesi supporting the flanks covered by Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco. Up front, the responsibility of breaking down the Milan defense falls to the lethal Lautaro Martínez and Ange-Yoan Bonny. This setup allows Inter to control the tempo, overload the midfield, and launch rapid attacks through their wing-backs.

2Milan Analysis: The Resurrection under Allegri

AC Milan’s resurgence has been one of the storylines of the 2025/26 season. The return of Massimiliano Allegri, the manager who guided them to the 2010/11 Scudetto, has instilled a new sense of pragmatism and solidity in the squad. The Rossoneri are currently undefeated in their last 11 matches across all competitions, a testament to the defensive organization Allegri has implemented. While they may not be as explosive as their city rivals—scoring 17 goals compared to Inter’s 26—their defense has been remarkably stingy, conceding only 9 goals in the league, the bedrock of their current third-place standing.

However, this newfound solidity has come with a caveat: a tendency to draw. In their last six matches, Milan has shared the points on four occasions, securing only two wins. This "draw specialist" tag is a direct result of Allegri’s conservative approach, which prioritizes defensive shape over risk-taking. Despite this, their away form is formidable; they have remained unbeaten in 83% of their last 12 away fixtures, proving they are a difficult nut to crack on the road. Their ability to frustrate opponents and hit on the transition is key, reflected in a lower average possession (51.83%) compared to Inter.

Interestingly, Milan is also expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation, mirroring their rivals. Mike Maignan remains a world-class presence in goal, protected by Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, and Strahinja Pavlović. The midfield boasts an intriguing mix of steel and experience, with Youssouf Fofana, Samuele Ricci, and the veteran legend Luka Modrić orchestrating play, flanked by Alexis Saelemaekers and Davide Bartesaghi. The attack will rely on the speed and creativity of Rafael Leão and Christopher Nkunku. The key for Milan will be to absorb Inter’s pressure and exploit the space behind the Nerazzurri’s wing-backs using Leão’s pace.

3Head-to-Head (H2H) History

The history of the Derby della Madonnina is rich with drama, but the most recent chapter provides a fascinating psychological edge to AC Milan. In their last encounter at the Giuseppe Meazza, sparks flew as Milan delivered a tactical masterclass, securing a resounding 0-3 victory as the away side. Despite Inter dominating possession with 56% and registering 17 shots to Milan's 8, the Rossoneri were lethal in front of goal. Luka Jović was the hero that day with a brace, followed by a goal from Tijjani Reijnders, reminding Inter that statistical dominance does not always translate to points.

That result snapped a streak of two draws in their previous four direct duels. It served as a harsh lesson for Inter: while they generated more dangerous attacks (46 to 34), they lacked the clinical edge that Milan displayed. This history suggests that while Inter might control the ball this weekend, Milan has the blueprint to hurt them. The tactical battle between a possession-heavy Inter and a counter-attacking, clinical Milan is set to resume, with the memory of that 0-3 defeat likely fueling Inter’s desire for revenge.

4Key Statistics

• League Position: Inter 1st (24 points) vs Milan 3rd (22 points).
• Goals Scored: Inter 26 (Best in Serie A) vs Milan 17.
• Goals Conceded: Inter 12 vs Milan 9 (Solid defensive record).
• Average Goals per Game: Inter 2.36 vs Milan 1.54.
• Recent Form (Last 6): Inter has won 5 and lost 1. Milan is unbeaten but has drawn 4 times.
• Home/Away Trends: Inter has won 75% of their last 12 home league games. Milan has kept a clean sheet in 7 of their last 17 away visits.
• Inter's Dominance: Unbeaten in 33 of their last 40 Serie A matches.
• Milan's Resilience: Unbeaten in their last 11 matches across all competitions.

5Match Conditions

The match will be held at the shared home of both clubs, the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), ensuring a raucous atmosphere divided between the Nerazzurri and Rossoneri faithful. Being the "home" team on the fixture list, Inter will have the majority of the crowd support, which historically boosts their intensity. The pitch is expected to be in top condition for this high-profile clash.

In terms of squad availability, both managers seem to have settled on their preferred XIs. Inter is banking on the fitness of their dynamic midfield trio and Lautaro Martínez's leadership. Milan, under Allegri, relies heavily on the experience of players like Modrić and the explosive ability of Leão to turn defense into attack in seconds. The motivation could not be higher: Inter fights to keep the top spot and avenge the 0-3 loss, while Milan knows a win proves their resurgence is real and takes them to the summit of Serie A.

6Prediction and Final Forecast

Analyzing the dynamics of both teams, we are presented with a classic clash of styles: Inter’s fluid, high-scoring offensive machine against Massimiliano Allegri’s organized, hard-to-beat Milan block. Inter’s home stats are imperious, averaging over 2 goals per game, which suggests they will score. However, Milan’s recent 11-match unbeaten run is built on a defense that bends but rarely breaks, conceding less than a goal per game.

The psychological factor of the recent 0-3 Milan win cannot be ignored; it gives the Rossoneri confidence that they can withstand Inter’s pressure. Conversely, Milan’s tendency to draw in recent weeks (4 draws in the last 6 games) points towards a team that is difficult to defeat but sometimes lacks the firepower to kill off games against top opposition. With Inter’s attack meeting Milan’s defense, and considering the high stakes where avoiding defeat is often as important as winning, a tight contest is expected.

The most logical outcome, considering Inter's firepower and Milan's resilience, is a scoring draw. Both teams have significant threats (Lautaro, Leão, Nkunku, Bonny) to breach the opponent's goal. The statistical models and the narrative suggest a 2-2 draw is a very plausible scoreline, reflecting a 43% probability of a stalemate. Neither team wants to lose ground in such a tight title race.

Recommended Tip 1:

Both Teams to Score - Yes (Odds approx. 1.75)
Given Inter's league-best attack (26 goals) and Milan's ability to be lethal on the counter-attack (as proven in the 0-3 H2H), it is highly unlikely either keeper keeps a clean sheet. Inter concedes about a goal a game, and Milan has the talent to exploit that.

Recommended Tip 2:

Over 2.5 Goals (Odds approx. 1.83)
The history of this fixture and current form supports goals. Inter averages 2.36 goals alone. Combined with the prediction of a 2-2 draw, the Over 2.5 line is a strong value play. The last meeting saw 3 goals, and Inter's home games are traditionally high-scoring affairs.

Recommended Tip 3:

Double Chance: Inter or Draw (Odds approx. 1.22)
While Milan won the last H2H, Inter's overall consistency at home (winning 3 of the last 3) makes them the safer side. Covering the draw is essential given Milan's recent streak of ties. This bet provides security against an upset while acknowledging Inter's status as favorites.

7Conclusion

The Derby della Madonnina on November 23, 2025, is set to be a defining moment in the Serie A title race. It is a battle between the league's best attack and one of its most resilient defenses. While Inter Milan enters as the favorite due to their table position and offensive output, AC Milan's resurgence under Allegri and their unbeaten streak make them a formidable obstacle. We anticipate a thrilling, tactical encounter that will likely end with honors even, providing entertainment and goals for the fans at the Giuseppe Meazza.